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  • Upstream Petroleum Economics & Risk Management

Date Duration Location  
26-Sep-11 5 days Singapore -


Supported by
 
 
Designed for
This workshop is for petroleum professionals with a need for or an interest in a thorough understanding of international oil and gas industry practice with respect to fiscal system arrangements. Job titles include Geoscientists, Petroleum Engineers, Planning Officers, Business Analyst & Managers, Regulators, Corporate Analyst and Independent Operators.
 
Designed for
This workshop is for petroleum professionals with a need for or an interest in a thorough understanding of international oil and gas industry practice with respect to fiscal system arrangements. Job titles include Geoscientists, Petroleum Engineers, Planning Officers, Business Analyst & Managers, Regulators, Corporate Analyst and Independent Operators.
 
 
 
You will learn how to
  • FACILITATE the understanding and managing stochastic variables such as
    • Oil and gas prices
    • Oil and gas reserves
    • Oil and gas production profiles
    • Oil and gas taxation
    • Decision variables in petroleum exploration and production economic decisions.
  • DEVELOP skill at building practical deterministic and probabilistic models for business decisions
  • UNDERSTANDING Monte Carlo simulation process.
  • LEARN to analyze data and select defensible distributions
  • UNDERSTAND and CONVERSE using the language of probability and statistics
  • QUANTIFY uncertainty and risk in petroleum business decisions using available commercial software such as @Risk or Crystal Ball
 
 
 
Overview
Topics covered in this seminar are petroleum E&P economics evaluation conceptual framework and economic decision tools, which underlay optimal E&P investment decision-making, profitability analysis of upstream petroleum ventures, analysis of E&P projects under risk and uncertainty, and oil and gas fiscal and contractual framework worldwide.
 
In addition, how the economic value of oil and gas ventures and business can be determined and used in making decisions are reviewed. The course also explains why global oil and gas prices, international fiscal and taxation policy, and environmental regulations are important in petroleum E&P business decisions and corporate strategy.
 
 
 
Outline
  • Day 1
    • Introduction/course expectations
    • 2012/2013 Global E&P outlook: structure, conduct, petroleum market pricing, and market performance
    • Petroleum economic evaluation fundamentals - cash flow items/ models/ profitability analysis
    • Elements and determinants of petroleum E&P investment decisions - resources, reserves and production capacity
    • Elements and determinants of petroleum E&P investment decisions - decline curve and production forecasting & profile
       
  • Day 2
    • Descriptions and classification of petroleum fiscal systems and contractual terms: bonuses, rentals, royalties, levies, and taxation 1
    • Descriptions and classification of petroleum fiscal systems and contractual terms: bonuses, rentals, royalties, levies, and taxation 2
    • The arithmetic & mechanics of a archetypal concessionary (R&T) petroleum fiscal regime
    • The arithmetic & mechanics of a archetypal contractual (PSA) petroleum fiscal regime
       
  • Day 3
    • Comparative and qualitative assessment of the fiscal provisions in PSC and R/T fiscal arrangements worldwide
    • Deterministic economic modeling and quantitative assessments of fiscal instruments and contractual terms worldwide
    • Group Discussions/Case Discussion
    • Review expectations and feedback
    • Capital budgeting techniques—the discounted cash flow (DCF) models
    • Capital budgeting techniques—deterministic model analysis & decision criteria
       
  • Day 4
    • Risk and uncertainty management methods—basic language of statistics and probability
    • Risk and uncertainty management methods – expected value and utility applications
    • Risk and uncertainty management methods—decision trees and their use in E&P decisions
    • Risk and E&P decision analysis using spreadsheet stochastic modeling and simulation tools
       
  • Day 5
    • Stochastic modeling of key fiscal policy issues and contract terms affecting E&P profitability: the case of R/T (Group Discussions)
    • Stochastic modeling of key fiscal policy and contract terms affecting E&P profitability: the case of PSC (Group Discussions)
    • Risk and decision analysis in the petroleum industry using Crystal Ball or @Risk (Group Discussion 1) 


       

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